Coffee prices 2026: record Brazil harvest, Colombia shortage, relief at last

Because Brazil is bringing in a historic crop. According to the USDA (June 2026), Brazil's 2026/27 harvest should reach 71.9 million 60 kg bags, up 14.1% year on year.

Conab has a different number: 67.6 million bags for 2026 (+19.6%), an estimate raised on 24 September. Different periods, so we're not blending them, but both say "record." Worldwide, the USDA expects roughly 189.7 million bags for 2026/27, up 6% (June 2026 projection).

The Colombia coffee shortage is real, but it weighs less than Brazil's surplus. In July 2026, Colombian production fell 22.6% year on year to 1.06 million bags, per the National Federation of Coffee Growers (FNC) (August 2026).

Then, on 10 August 2026, a magnitude 7.4 earthquake hit the west of the country near San José del Palmar (Chocó), cutting the roads to Buenaventura, the port that handles about 60% of Colombia's coffee exports according to the FNC and Asoexport (Global Coffee Report). Shipments all but stopped.

My bet? Single-origin Colombian coffees will stay pricey longer than blends, a distinction our guide to single-origin vs. blend espresso covers. The world price, though, mostly follows Brazil.

Simple: the coffee on the shelf was bought months before it got there, at the old high price.

The market drop is clear: the ICO composite indicator went from 304.68 to 248.90 US cents per pound between December 2025 and June 2026, about 18% lower. On 23 September, arabica closed at $2.71 per pound in New York, down 28.2% over the trailing 30 days (TradingEconomics).

France shows the lag nicely. In March 2026, franceinfo walked through it with roaster Lobodis: beans are bought months ahead. In the annual retail negotiations, industrial roasters pushed for 15 to 20% increases while supermarkets asked for a 6% cut. Michel-Édouard Leclerc, head of the Leclerc chain, still expected shelf prices to rise about 9%, falling market or not.

For supermarket coffee, stocking up now means paying the old price. Buy as you go and watch the labels towards the end of the year. Small roasters buy in smaller, more frequent lots, so their prices might move sooner.

Gear is different, since a machine's price doesn't track the arabica market. The De'Longhi Magnifica S ECAM11.112.B - Perfetto Machine à Café Automatique avec Mousseur à Lait Manuel is an entry-level bean-to-cup machine with a built-in grinder (my one-year verdict). For filter or moka pot, an electric burr grinder like the De'Longhi KG79 - Moulin à Café Électrique à Meules, 16 Niveaux de Mouture will do more for your cup than a discount on a bag.

Coffee prices 2026 have turned. Your bag of beans is still waiting its turn.